Bitcoin price forecasts suggest potential decline below $60,000 in 2026

Bitcoin is trading near $64,000 as analysts assess both market cycles and prediction‑market data. João Wedson, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal, argues that past U.S. election cycles have influenced Bitcoin’s price, with bear markets typically beginning about a year before midterm elections and bull runs following election resolution. He notes that each time a president wins, Bitcoin has rallied strongly afterward.

Separately, prediction‑market platform Polymarket shows an 80% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 before the end of 2026, with a 56% chance of dropping below $55,000 and a 36% chance of hitting $50,000. The cryptocurrency has remained largely within a $60,000‑$82,000 range since June, and recent price action has weakened expectations for a sustained recovery through the remainder of the year.