Black Sea escalation poses security risks to Bulgaria

Political analyst Dimitar Bechev, an Oxford University lecturer and Carnegie Foundation associate, warns that Bulgaria faces significant security risks due to escalating tensions and hybrid threats in the Black Sea. He notes that recent drone incidents near Bulgarian territorial waters are not isolated, linking them to similar events in neighboring Romania, where an F-16 reportedly downed two suspected Russian drones.

Bechev describes the situation as a combination of horizontal military escalation and vertical hybrid threats. These actions aim to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports and trade links, while simultaneously seeking to destabilize regional societies and political structures. The campaign targets critical infrastructure and production capacities used to support Ukraine, affecting the Eastern flank of NATO and the European Union.