Black Sea grain exports could recover 80% following ceasefire

Russia could rapidly restore up to 80% of its grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if a ceasefire is reached to end mutual attacks with Ukraine. While much of the infrastructure is ready for a quick restart, approximately 20% of the capacity has suffered heavy damage and may require several months of repairs.

Before the current hostilities, these maritime routes accounted for nearly 70% of Russia’s grain exports. As the world’s largest wheat exporter, disruptions to these shipments have contributed to rising global grain prices and heightened concerns regarding international food security.

Diplomatic efforts to revive the trade are being led by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, with involvement from grain-importing nations including India and Egypt, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. While the Kremlin has acknowledged diplomatic contacts, it noted that Russia is currently seeking alternative export routes.