Black Sea hostilities trigger decline in global grain shipments

Global grain shipments have declined by 8% year-on-year, driven by a 26% drop in exports from the Black Sea region. This decline is attributed to intensified attacks by both Russia and Ukraine on ships and port infrastructure. Following Ukraine’s ‘Operation MoLoChKa’ in July 2026, hostilities expanded from the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea, targeting merchant vessels and ports.

Russia has responded by targeting Ukrainian ports and merchant ships, leading many shipowners to suspend operations in the region. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes have reportedly damaged grain terminals at the Russian port of Novorossiysk, which handles over 30% of Russia’s wheat exports. Analysts warn that these disruptions could trigger a global grain crisis, as the Black Sea region accounts for approximately 14% of global seaborne grain volumes.

Combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine, which reached 6.3 million tonnes in August of the previous year, are projected to potentially fall to just 2.5 million tonnes this August. While both nations are seeking alternative routes—including overland paths and ports in the Caspian, Baltic, and Far East seas—these alternatives face significant capacity constraints and bottlenecks.