BMKG forecasts peak dry season across Indonesia in August‑September 2026

Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) warned that the country will experience an extended dry season in 2026. Climate specialists highlighted that seasonal forecasting is complicated by the interaction of three large‑scale oceanic drivers – sea‑surface temperatures around the archipelago, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño/La Niña cycle – together with the nation’s mountainous topography.

BMKG projects that the dry season will broaden from July onward, reaching its peak in August when almost half of Indonesia’s land area (48.8 %) – covering most of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, large parts of Kalimantan and Papua – is expected to be under severe drought. A further 169 zones may enter peak conditions in September. The agency linked the extreme drought to a lingering El Niño expected to persist into early 2027.

To mitigate impacts, BMKG urged farmers to adjust planting schedules and use drought‑tolerant varieties, local governments to revitalize reservoirs and water distribution, and energy operators to secure water supplies for hydropower. It also called for rapid response mechanisms to address deteriorating air quality and coordinated weather‑modification operations to curb forest‑fire risks.