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[INTERNATIONAL] · Indonesia · 14 sources

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Part of situation: Weather variability, volcanic activity, and delayed rainy-se (17 clusters)

Indonesia rainy season delayed due to strong El Nino

El Nino rainy season BMKG drought climate prediction

The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the 2026–2027 rainy season will arrive later than usual for approximately 61.08 percent of the country, covering 529 Season Zones. This delay is attributed to a very strong El Nino phenomenon combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Most regions are expected to begin seeing rainfall gradually in November 2026, with the peak occurring between December 2026 and February 2027. Due to the El Nino influence, the overall duration of the rainy season is expected to be shorter than normal.

The prolonged dry period has already had significant impacts, including approximately 202,000 hectares of land burned between January and July 2026. In West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), nine out of ten regencies have reported drought conditions, with some areas facing crop failures. In Central Java, hot weather is expected to persist until October.

BMKG has advised local governments, the agricultural sector, and water resource managers to prepare for potential hydrometeorological disasters, such as floods and landslides, once the rainy season begins, while also managing water conservation during the remaining dry months.

Entities

Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan · BMKG · BNPB · Bandung · Central Java · El Niño · Gerbang Tani · Indonesia · Java · Kalimantan · Perum Jasa Tirta II · Sumatra

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Rainfall is expected to gradually increase in forest and land fire-prone areas in Sumatra and Kalimantan between September and October 2026.
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Riau has already entered the rainy season as of September.
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Weather modification aims to increase rainfall in the Citarum River Basin to refill the Saguling, Cirata, and Jatiluhur reservoirs.
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Persistent rainy season onset for southern West Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan is predicted for the second and third decades of October.
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Recent rainfall in the Bandung Raya region is linked to weather modification operations.
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] BMKG and Perum Jasa Tirta II conducted weather modification operations from September 8 to September 22, 2026.
  • [● 4 SOURCES] A very strong El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are contributing to reduced rainfall. www.jurnas.com · dnaberita.com · minanews.net
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Between January and July 2026, approximately 202,000 hectares of land were burned due to drought. www.beritaharian.sg
  • [● 6 SOURCES] The rainy season is expected to be shorter than usual due to the El Nino phenomenon. www.beritaharian.sg · www.jurnas.com · www.antaranews.com · dnaberita.com · minanews.net
  • [● 2 SOURCES] The rainy season peak is expected to occur between December 2026 and February 2027. www.antaranews.com · minanews.net
  • [● 6 SOURCES] Approximately 61.08 percent of Indonesia's land area (529 Season Zones) will experience a delayed rainy season compared to the 1991–2020 average. disway.id · www.jurnas.com · dnaberita.com · minanews.net · www.beritaharian.sg
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] High risks of floods and landslides are identified in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, and parts of Sumatra. www.antaranews.com

Sources

Musim Hujan 2026-2027 Segera Tiba, BMKG Ungkap Perkiraan Puncaknya [disway.id]
Kuliner khas Bojonegoro, Mulai dari Sego Gulung Tiga Ribuan Sampai Tongseng Belut Hot Plate [www.jawapos.com]
BMKG: El Nino Sangat Kuat dan IOD Bikin Musim Hujan Datang Terlambat [www.jurnas.com]
BMKG Prakirakan Hujan Berangsur Turun di Daerah Rawan Karhutla [www.nu.or.id]
Cuaca Panas di Jateng Diperkirakan sampai Oktober, BMKG Imbau Hindari Pembakaran dan Cegah Dehidrasi [halosemarang.id]
BMKG: El Nino Sangat Kuat sedang Terjadi, Musim Hujan Diprediksi Datang Lebih Lambat [dnaberita.com]
BMKG Prediksi Musim Hujan pada November dan Desember Mendatang [minanews.net]
BMKG perketat pengawasan daerah rawan bencana saat puncak musim hujan [www.antaranews.com]
Indonesia: Musim Hujan 2026 Lebih Singkat Akibat El Nino [www.beritaharian.sg]
ADB Ramal Inflasi RI Bengkak ke 3,3%, Ekonomi Tumbuh 5,2% di 2026 [www.cnbcindonesia.com]
Cuaca Jabar 23 September: Depok, Bogor, Bekasi hingga Bandung Berpotensi Hujan [jabar.jpnn.com]
Kemarau Panjang, Kekeringan Hantui Nusa Tenggara Barat [mongabay.co.id]
1. 000 Orang Bersujud di Titik Nol Kota Cimahi, Melangitkan Doa Segera Turun Hujan - Republika Online [rejabar.republika.co.id]
Worsening El Niño threatens Asia with drought, potentially raising food prices globally - WSVN 7News | Miami News, Weather, Sports | Fort Lauderdale [wsvn.com]