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17 clusters · 73 sources · 58 days · First seen · Last updated

Weather variability, volcanic activity, and delayed rainy-se

Overview

Weather conditions across Indonesia continue to show significant variability driven by multiple atmospheric phenomena. In late August, a strong El Nino drove dry conditions in South Sulawesi, contributing to 112 forest and land fire incidents between January and August 2026. On September 8, 2026, the eruption of Gunung Anak Krakatau caused volcanic ash to spread across West Java and South Sumatra, impacting air quality and disrupting nearly 3,000 flights.

By late September 2026, the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) reported that the ENSO index reached a very strong level of +2.63, resulting in low rainfall across 87.53 percent of the country. Extreme drought has triggered widespread wildfires, particularly on Borneo, where drained peatlands are experiencing difficult-to-extinguish underground fires. As of October 9, 2026, meteorological drought persists in many regions, with 1,869 areas having experienced extreme drought through September.

The onset of the 2026/2027 rainy season is expected to be delayed and shorter than usual across approximately 61.08 percent of Indonesia’s seasonal zones, with El Nino predicted to persist until early 2027. On October 11, 2026, extreme weather in Aceh triggered flash floods and landslides in Gayo Lues and Aceh Tenggara, causing infrastructure damage and cutting off road access. While recovery efforts are underway in Gayo Lues, BMKG has issued warnings regarding the potential development of cumulonimbus clouds in parts of Sumatra and Papua. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is predicted for Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, West Kalimantan, and parts of Papua, raising risks of flooding, landslides, and flash floods. Other regions, including parts of Java and Riau, remain under alert for thunderstorms and strong winds.

Entities

BMKG · Indonesia · Maluku · Malang · El Niño

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Coverage disagrees

Sources make claims that cannot both be true. CLSTR reports the disagreement; it does not decide who is right.

  • "El Niño is expected to delay the start of the rainy season in 95 percent of the West Java region." en.tempo.co

    vs

    "The rainy season in West Java is forecast to begin in November across 49 percent of the province." en.tempo.co

    One claim states the rainy season will begin in November across 49 percent of West Java, while the other states El Niño will delay the start in 95 percent of the region.

Timeline

  1. [INTERNATIONAL] 16 sources
    Indonesia weather alerts issued for floods, landslides, and El Nino impacts

    Indonesia faces varied weather risks, including El Nino-driven drought, cumulonimbus cloud threats in Sumatra and Papua, and recent flash floods and landslides in Aceh.

  2. [INTERNATIONAL] 14 sources
    Indonesia faces diverse weather risks from floods to forest fires

    Indonesia faces varied weather extremes, including heavy rain and flood risks in Aceh and Sumatra, high heat in East Java, tidal flooding in NTT, and rising forest fire hotspots in Sumatra.

  3. [INTERNATIONAL] 18 sources
    Indonesia weather: Delayed rainy season predicted due to El Niño

    BMKG predicts a delayed 2026/2027 rainy season across much of Indonesia due to strong El Niño and positive IOD, though localized heavy rain and wind warnings remain for early October.

  4. [INTERNATIONAL] 19 sources
    Southeast Asia faces El Niño-driven drought and wildfires

    El Niño is driving extreme drought and wildfires across Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia, where 96% of hotspots are on palm oil plantations. Haze is affecting neighboring countries.

  5. [INTERNATIONAL] 5 sources
    BMKG predicts prolonged dry season in Indonesia due to strong El Niño

    BMKG predicts a prolonged dry season and delayed rainy season for over 60% of Indonesia due to a strong El Niño and potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

  6. [INTERNATIONAL] 14 sources
    Indonesia rainy season delayed due to strong El Nino

    BMKG predicts a delayed and shorter 2026–2027 rainy season for most of Indonesia due to a strong El Nino and positive IOD, following a period of severe drought and land fires.

  7. [INTERNATIONAL] 17 sources
    Indonesia weather: BMKG forecasts widespread clouds and light rain

    BMKG forecasts cloudy skies and light to moderate rain across much of Indonesia, including parts of Sumatra, Java, and Papua, while Banten remains in its peak dry season period.

  8. [INTERNATIONAL] 13 sources
    BMKG issues weather alerts for strong winds, haze, and high waves across Indonesia

    BMKG has issued multiple weather alerts across Indonesia, including strong winds in East Java, transboundary haze in Papua, and high waves in Southeast Sulawesi.

  9. [INTERNATIONAL] 11 sources
    Indonesia weather alerts issued as tropical cyclone seed detected

    BMKG warns of a tropical cyclone seed 98W in the South China Sea and predicts heavy rain, thunderstorms, and fog across various Indonesian regions including Sumatra, Java, and parts of Papua.

  10. [INTERNATIONAL] 12 sources
    Indonesia weather: BMKG warns of rain and high temperatures

    BMKG reports diverse weather conditions across Indonesia, including potential heavy rain due to atmospheric dynamics, high temperatures in South Sulawesi, and mostly sunny or cloudy skies in Java and Yogyakarta

  11. [INTERNATIONAL] 6 sources
    BMKG issues weather forecasts for Garut, Maluku, and Southwest Papua

    BMKG forecasts varied weather for August 31, 2026, in Indonesia, including cloudy skies in Garut, sunny conditions in parts of Maluku, and hazy weather in Tambrauw, Southwest Papua.

  12. [INTERNATIONAL] 11 sources
    BMKG issues weather alerts and cloud seeding updates across Indonesia

    BMKG reports diverse weather patterns across Indonesia, including extreme storm risks in Padang, sunny skies in Jakarta, and ongoing cloud seeding operations in Jambi and IKN to fight forest fires.

  13. [INTERNATIONAL] 5 sources
    Indonesia weather forecast: Sunny in Riau Islands and rainy in Ambon

    Weather forecasts for August 29, 2026, predict sunny to cloudy skies in the Riau Islands, while Ambon City expects light rain across its five districts.

  14. [INTERNATIONAL] 6 sources
    Indonesia weather: BMKG forecasts rain, haze, and cloudy skies

    BMKG forecasts diverse weather across Indonesia, including moderate to light rain in several cities, potential haze in Bandar Lampung and Pontianak, and cloudy conditions in the Riau Islands and Jakarta.

  15. [INTERNATIONAL] 12 sources
    Indonesia weather: Tropical cyclone and El Nino drive extreme conditions

    Indonesia faces varied weather extremes: Tropical Cyclone Nara threatens heavy rain in several regions, while a strong El Nino causes drought and forest fires in South Sulawesi and high waves in Maluku.

  16. [INTERNATIONAL] 6 sources
    Weather forecasts for Ambon and Malang Raya indicate varied conditions

    Weather forecasts for Ambon and Malang Raya show cloudy to sunny conditions, with Ambon seeing moderate temperatures and Malang experiencing the 'bediding' phenomenon with significant temperature swings.

  17. [INTERNATIONAL] 5 sources
    Indonesia weather: High waves in Seluma and varied forecasts for Maluku and Malang

    BMKG reports diverse weather across Indonesia: sunny skies in Maluku and Malang, light rain in Ambon, and dangerous 6-meter waves in Seluma, Bengkulu, prompting maritime safety warnings.

Sources

alinea.id · ambon.tribunnews.com · antarafoto.com · antaranews.com · bantenekspres.co.id · beautynury.com · bengkulu.tribunnews.com · beritaharian.sg · beritajatim.com · cenderawasihpos.jawapos.com · ciudadmcy.info.ve · clovermedia.jp · cnbcindonesia.com · denpasar24.com · disway.id · dnaberita.com · ekbis.harianjogja.com · en.antaranews.com · en.tempo.co · halosemarang.id · harianjogja.com · harianmuria.com · industry.co.id · inews.id · infosawit.com · jabar.jpnn.com · jatengprov.go.id · jawapos.com · jogja.jpnn.com · jpnn.com · jurnas.com · langgam.id · m.jpnn.com · makassar.terkini.id · malang-post.com · malay.news · malaysiatribune.news · matamata.com · medcom.id · mediaindonesia.com · mediasulsel.com · megapolitan.okezone.com · minanews.net · minews.id · mongabay.co.id · noticias24hrs.com.ve · nu.or.id · okezone.com

This summary has been updated 46 times: see revision history