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[INTERNATIONAL] · Indonesia · 5 sources

started · updated

Part of situation: Weather variability, volcanic activity, and delayed rainy-se (17 clusters)

BMKG predicts prolonged dry season in Indonesia due to strong El Niño

El Niño drought BMKG climate change monsoon season

The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts a prolonged dry season due to a very strong El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming of sea surface temperatures is expected to delay the onset of the rainy season.

BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani reported that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region reached +2.83 in late August 2026, with an ENSO index of +2.63 for the July-September period. This strong El Niño, combined with a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase, is expected to exacerbate drought conditions across much of Indonesia.

Approximately 61.08% of Indonesia, spanning 529 Seasonal Monsoon Zones (ZOM), will experience a delayed rainy season for the 2026-2027 period. Most regions are not expected to begin their rainy season until November or December 2026.

Entities

BMKG · Pacific Ocean · Teuku Faisal Fathani

Sources

Dipengaruhi El Niño Sangat Kuat di Samudra Pasifik, BMKG Perkirakan Musim Kemarau Lebih Panjang [halosemarang.id]
Sinergi Pusat dan Daerah Menjaga Ketahanan Pangan Hadapi Ancaman Anomali Iklim [minews.id]
Perkuat perlindungan, Pemerintah pantau dampak El Nino bagi kesehatan [www.antaranews.com]
Fighting disinformation to foster peace: The role of news agencies [en.antaranews.com]
El Nino Masih Sangat Kuat, Ini Prediksi Musim Hujan 2026/2027 dan Langkah Antisipasinya [www.medcom.id]