started · updated
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in Brazilian presidential polls FAST-MOVING
New Datafolha polling data indicates a technical tie in the 2026 Brazilian presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. In a simulated first round, Lula holds 39% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 36%. In a potential second-round runoff, Lula leads with 46% against Bolsonaro's 44%, a margin that falls within the poll's 2 percentage point margin of error.
Both candidates face high levels of voter rejection, with each sitting at 47%.
The political landscape is further complicated by corruption allegations involving Master Bank. President Lula has publicly accused Flávio Bolsonaro of being deeply involved in a scandal related to the bank. Bolsonaro has admitted to receiving $12 million from former bank owner Daniel Vorcaro to sponsor a biographical film about his father, Jair Bolsonaro, though he maintains the transaction was entirely legal and that he was unaware of the bank's fraudulent activities.
Entities
Alexandre de Moraes · Atlas/Bloomberg · AtlasIntel · Brazil · Daniel Vorcaro · Datafolha · Flávio Bolsonaro · Liberal Party · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · PoderData · PoderData/Aya · Workers' Party
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [DISPUTED] In a second-round simulation, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 44%. pontanegranews.com.br · www.tvyumuri.cu · folhadenoticiasgo.com.br · valor.globo.com · portaloinformante.com.br · +4 more
- [DISPUTED] Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in a second-round simulation with 42% against 40%. pautapb.com.br · www.polemicaparaiba.com.br
- [DISPUTED] In a first-round simulation, Flávio Bolsonaro has 40% and Lula has 37%. mspost.com.br
- [● 8 SOURCES] The Datafolha poll shows a technical tie in both the first and second rounds with a 2 percentage point margin of error. folhadenoticiasgo.com.br · valor.globo.com · portaloinformante.com.br · www.estadao.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · +2 more
- [● 9 SOURCES] In a first-round simulation, Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 36%. www.bahianoticias.com.br · mspost.com.br · folhadenoticiasgo.com.br · valor.globo.com · portaloinformante.com.br · +4 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A Gerp poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula with 50% to 43% in a second-round scenario. mspost.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds 41.7% of the first-round voting intentions. pontanegranews.com.br · www.tvyumuri.cu
- [DISPUTED] In the first round, President Lula leads with 44.1% of the votes. pontanegranews.com.br · www.tvyumuri.cu
- [DISPUTED] Lula has 46% in the second round; Flávio Bolsonaro, 44%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro would win against Lula in the second round with 46% to 44%. www.bahianoticias.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio leads with 48.1% and opens a 4.4 point gap in the second round over Lula, who has 43.7%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] President Lula accused Flávio Bolsonaro of being implicated in a corruption scandal involving Master Bank. dominicanaaldia.com