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[POLITICS] · Brazil · 42 sources

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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in Brazilian presidential polls FAST-MOVING

New Datafolha polling data indicates a technical tie in the 2026 Brazilian presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. In a simulated first round, Lula holds 39% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 36%. In a potential second-round runoff, Lula leads with 46% against Bolsonaro's 44%, a margin that falls within the poll's 2 percentage point margin of error.

Both candidates face high levels of voter rejection, with each sitting at 47%.

The political landscape is further complicated by corruption allegations involving Master Bank. President Lula has publicly accused Flávio Bolsonaro of being deeply involved in a scandal related to the bank. Bolsonaro has admitted to receiving $12 million from former bank owner Daniel Vorcaro to sponsor a biographical film about his father, Jair Bolsonaro, though he maintains the transaction was entirely legal and that he was unaware of the bank's fraudulent activities.

Entities

Alexandre de Moraes · Atlas/Bloomberg · AtlasIntel · Brazil · Daniel Vorcaro · Datafolha · Flávio Bolsonaro · Liberal Party · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · PoderData · PoderData/Aya · Workers' Party

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