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2 clusters · 85 sources · 19 days · First seen · Last updated

Brazil 2026 race: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied

Overview

The 2026 presidential race remains highly competitive, with recent polling showing a tightening contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. While earlier Nexus data placed Lula at 39% in a first-round scenario against Bolsonaro’s 33%, a subsequent BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula leading with 39% but Bolsonaro increasing his share to 35%. In simulated second-round runoffs, the candidates remain in a technical tie, with Bolsonaro holding 46% against Lula’s 45%.

New regional data from Quaest highlights significant geographic divides. In São Paulo, Bolsonaro leads slightly with 31% against Lula's 30%, and in the Federal District, Bolsonaro holds a 31% lead over Lula's 28%. Notably, Quaest reports that Bolsonaro has surpassed Lula for the first time in Minas Gerais in a second-round scenario, though recent data suggests the candidates are currently in a technical tie in that key electoral state. Lula maintains strong advantages in Pernambuco, while Bolsonaro shows strength in parts of Rio de Janeiro.

Other candidates continue to influence the landscape. Writer Augusto Cury has seen significant growth, appearing in second-round simulations against Lula with 45% and showing double-digit support in various first-round metrics. Additionally, Meio/Ideia polling shows Lula at 38.4% and Bolsonaro at 37.3% in first-round simulations.

Campaign strategies continue to diverge. Lula has engaged with the financial sector through meetings with business leaders in Brasília, while Flávio Bolsonaro has focused on a fiscal adjustment plan involving spending cuts and bureaucratic reductions. Voter decisiveness appears high, with 81% of those who have chosen a candidate stating their decision is final.

Entities

Brazil · Renan Santos · Daniel Vorcaro · Augusto Cury · Michelle Bolsonaro

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Coverage disagrees

Sources make claims that cannot both be true. CLSTR reports the disagreement; it does not decide who is right.

  • "In a simulated second-round runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 45.1% to 44.5%." radiosampaio.com.br · www.bahianoticias.com.br · veja.abril.com.br

    vs

    "In a second-round simulation against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 45%." www.brasilemfolhas.com.br

    These claims provide different vote percentages for a second-round simulation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

  • "Lula and Ronaldo Caiado are in a technical tie with 45% and 44% respectively in a second-round scenario." www.brasilemfolhas.com.br

    vs

    "Lula is in a technical tie with Ronaldo Caiado in a second-round simulation, with 45% against 44%." www.brasilemfolhas.com.br

    While both mention a tie between Lula and Caiado, they are attributed to different sources/contexts (though they describe the same data, they are not strictly contradictory, but I will omit them from'

  • "In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 43.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro is second with 33.7%." operamundi.uol.com.br · www.brasilemfolhas.com.br

    vs

    "In the first round, Lula leads with 37.1% of the vote, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 34.8%." radiosampaio.com.br · www.bahianoticias.com.br · veja.abril.com.br

    These claims provide different first-round vote percentages for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

  • "In São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 30% of voting intentions compared to 29% for Lula, according to Quaest." www.nitronewsbrasil.com.br

    vs

    "In São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro has 30% of voting intentions and Lula has 29%, according to Quaest." www.nitronewsbrasil.com.br

    These claims provide different voting intention percentages for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in São Paulo.

  • "Datafolha reports a technical tie in the Southeast region with 46% for Flávio and 43% for Lula." www.nitronewsbrasil.com.br

    vs

    "A Datafolha survey shows a technical tie in the Southeast region with 46% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 43% for Lula." www.nitronewsbrasil.com.br

    These claims provide different vote percentages for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in the Southeast region.

Timeline

  1. 14 days ago

    [POLITICS] 85 sources
    Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in 2026 presidential election polls

    Polls show a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidency, as candidates intensify campaigns and engage with business and legislative sectors.

  2. about 1 month ago

    [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Rio Grande do Sul government to auction 10 state properties

    The Rio Grande do Sul government is auctioning 10 state-owned properties, including land and apartments, with bids ranging from R$ 51,900 to R$ 780,000.

Sources

ac24horas.com · alagoas24horas.com.br · areavip.com.br · aredacao.com.br · atarde.com.br · bahianoticias.com.br · barq-news.com · bmcnews.com.br · br18.com.br · brasil247.com · brasilemfolhas.com.br · cbn.globo.com · chumbogrossomanaus.com.br · conexaopolitica.com.br · congressoemfoco.uol.com.br · contilnetnoticias.com.br · dev.tnonline.com.br · dgabc.com.br · diaadianoticia.com.br · diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · diariodoestadogo.com.br · diariopenedense.com.br · divirta-se.com.br · em.com.br · esmaelmorais.com.br · estadopolitico.com.br · exame.com · fatoamazonico.com.br · franciscogomesdasilva.com.br · gazetaweb.com · gp1.com.br · home.dgabc.com.br · horams.com.br · informaparaiba.com.br · istoe.com.br · jnediario.com.br · jornaldebrasilia.com.br · jornalhoraextra.com.br · jovempan.uol.com.br · luizmuller.com · maisminas.org · metropoles.com · moneyreport.com.br · moneytimes.com.br · nahoradanoticia.com.br · netoweba.com.br · nitronewsbrasil.com.br · noticiamarajo.com.br

This summary has been updated 12 times: see revision history