Brazil agribusiness faces credit strain, labor gaps and export hurdles

Brazil’s coffee exports fell 8.3% in the first half of the 2025/26 season, with total shipments of 3.06 million 60‑kg bags in June and a revenue drop of 6% to US$ 972.8 million. The sector cites a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee that cut U.S. shipments by 54.9% and a slowdown in shipments to Germany and other markets. The coffee industry secured an exemption from a 25% U.S. tariff, protecting US$ 2‑2.5 billion of annual exports.

Cotton’s minimum price was raised to R$ 119.13 per arroba for the 2026/27 season, reflecting a 3.8% increase to support the crop that is 4.06 million tonnes in the 2025/26 harvest.

A labour survey in Mato Grosso found 62.6% of producers rate hiring difficulty as high, with 69.2% blaming a lack of technical skills. “The risk of a blackout is real,” warned Imea superintendent Cleiton Gauer.

Goiás now accounts for 74.6% of Brazil’s sunflower output, with an estimated 83.2 kt in the 2025/26 crop, a 12.1% rise over the previous season.

Conab cut the wheat harvest forecast by 23.5% to about 6 million tonnes and warned of El Niño‑related quality risks, potentially increasing imports.

Fertiliser deliveries rose 1.6% to 12.3 million tonnes in the first four months of 2026, led by Mato Grosso (24.9% of total).

Rural credit in Goiás shows a problematic balance of R$ 21.44 billion, 26.9% of the state’s total rural credit, up 237% since 2024.

Delinquency among Brazilian producers reached 8.8% in Q1 2026, the highest in the series, with the North region at 13.2% and the Amapá state at 21.2%.