Brazil allocates over 1 billion reais to tackle severe El Niño threat

Brazil is bracing for an exceptionally strong El Niño that could surpass historic events of 1877/78. Climate models from Europe, the United States and Australia indicate sea‑surface temperatures may rise more than 2 °C, raising the risk of intense floods in the South, severe droughts in the Amazon and Cerrado, and heatwaves across the country.

The federal government has declared an environmental emergency and issued a provisional measure that adds 337.5 million reais to the response budget, bringing total funding for forest‑fire prevention and control in 2026 to 1.023 billion reais – a record increase from previous years. As the Ministry of the Environment noted, “Já temos disponíveis 1,023 bilhão de reais para o enfrentamento dos incêndios florestais em 2026, um valor recorde e 28% superior ao do ano passado.” Additional nearly 600 million reais from the Amazon Fund will equip fire brigades in vulnerable states.

Agribusiness analysts warn that the looming El Niño compounds existing financial strain on producers, threatening crops such as soy, corn, wheat, cotton, coffee and sugarcane. Delayed rains and extreme weather could raise food prices and push Brazil’s inflation forecast for 2026 upward by up to 0.8 percentage points, while drought‑induced reductions in hydro‑electric reservoirs may increase electricity costs.