Brazil and Argentina set to drive Latin America’s oil output to 11.6 mbd by 2050

The OPEC‑published “World Oil Outlook 2050” projects that Latin America’s crude production will rise from 7.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2025 to 11.6 mbd by 2050. Brazil and Argentina are expected to lead this expansion. Brazil’s output is forecast to increase from 3.7 mbd in 2025 to a peak of about 5.8 mbd in the early 2040s before easing slightly to 5.6 mbd in 2050. Argentina’s production, driven largely by the Vaca Muerta basin, is projected to grow from 1 mbd in 2025 to 2.1 mbd by 2050. The report also expects global crude demand to climb to 124.1 mbd by mid‑century, up from 113.3 mbd in 2030, creating space for the region’s increased supply.

These figures suggest that Brazil and Argentina will together account for a substantial share of future global oil markets, with implications for investment, trade balances, and energy security across the Americas.