Brazil beef market sees wholesale price rise and optimistic futures

Wholesale prices for boneless beef in Brazil saw an average increase of 1.0% at the end of August, driven largely by hindquarter cuts such as maminha, which rose by 6.2%. This occurred despite a seasonal decline in retail sales as consumer purchasing power weakened toward the end of the month.

In contrast, carcasses with bones experienced slight devaluation. The price for capão beef carcasses fell 1.0% to R$23.75/kg, while whole beef dropped 0.9% to R$23.25/kg. Internationally, Brazil has been strengthening partnerships with the United States, South Korea, Russia, and the European Union to mitigate quota restrictions in China.

Looking ahead, the futures curve for fat cattle indicates optimism for price recovery. Data from B3 suggests that beef prices could reach record nominal highs in December 2026, with a continued upward trend expected into 2027. While short-term demand remains pressured by seasonal trends and slower exports to China, the long-term market outlook remains bullish.