Brazil beef prices reach historic nominal highs

Beef prices in Brazil have reached historic nominal highs. In the first half of October 2026, the price of fat cattle (Cepea) rose to R$380.2 per arroba, representing a 19.1% increase since the end of 2025.

In São Paulo, the Cepea/Esalq indicator reached a record R$380.70 per arroba on October 16, the highest nominal value in the series dating back to 1994. This upward trend is driven by a supply of animals ready for slaughter that remains below market demand.

Several factors contribute to this shortage, including higher costs for animal replacement and record exports of live cattle. While concerns existed regarding China reaching its 2026 beef import quota of 1.106 million tons, which led some producers to delay cattle confinement, demand from other markets like the United States has helped sustain interest.

Other agricultural commodities showed mixed results during the same period. While soybean prices rose by 9.7% compared to late 2025, corn prices fell by 6.7%. Calf prices also saw an increase of 13.7% since the end of 2025.