Brazil braces for El Niño drought in Pernambuco, floods in Santa Catarina

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed an 88% chance that a strong to very strong El Niño will develop in the second half of 2026. In Pernambuco, the state agency Apac warned that the phenomenon could raise temperatures above average and reduce rainfall, heightening the risk of drought for agriculture, livestock and water reservoirs. Meteorologist Edvânia Pereira noted that higher heat may increase evaporation and soil moisture loss, prompting the need for irrigation and water‑management measures.

In southern Brazil, Santa Catarina is expected to experience intensified rainfall, raising the likelihood of floods, landslides and related damage. The state’s climate outlook highlights the need for continuous monitoring and preventive alerts to protect communities from extreme rain events linked to El Niño.