Brazil faces heightened political tension as governance strains under STF clashes

The political consultancy Arko Advice released its "Risco Brasil" report, concluding that Brazil's governability will remain tense but functional, with a rise in confrontations with the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The report assigns a medium probability that new phases of Operation Compliance Zero – the core of the "Caso Master" investigation – could affect electoral candidates, especially for the presidency, Senate and state governorships.

According to the analysis, Congress – comprising PT members, centrist blocs and right‑wing Bolsonarist forces – is expected to bear most of the institutional wear, potentially leading to a larger clash between the presidency, which controls the Federal Police, and the legislative houses. A minimal agenda may survive, but the government’s ability to advance reforms, such as ending the 6‑by‑1 work schedule, will be limited.

Looking ahead to the post‑election landscape, a right‑wing majority in the Senate could pursue the removal of STF ministers, while an elected Lula administration facing a serious fiscal adjustment would likely lose popular support and struggle to secure a stable congressional base. The report warns that the institutional crisis will be largely defined after the first round of the upcoming elections.