Brazil faces high mortality risk from Super El Niño heat

Brazil is projected to be the most affected Latin American country by the ‘Super El Niño’ phenomenon, which is characterized by abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean waters. A report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab suggests that extreme heat could cause up to 13,300 deaths in Brazil, primarily in the North and Northeast regions. Specific mortality estimates include 2,300 deaths in Pará, 1,300 in Maranhão, and 1,200 each in Amazonas and Bahia.

Globally, the intense El Niño is expected to contribute to 451,000 deaths by February 2027. In the Americas, the United States faces an estimated 3,500 additional deaths, while Venezuela and Colombia face 2,300 and 2,200 additional deaths, respectively.

Concurrently, the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) has issued alerts for a heatwave across Brazil. Eight states, including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais, are expected to see temperatures exceeding 40°C. The most critical period for heat in Brazil is anticipated between December 2026 and February 2027.