Brazil fertilizer imports fall sharply, tightening supply window for 2026/27 crop season

Brazil's imports of key fertilizers dropped 8.6% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to StoneX analysis. Urea volumes were 32% lower, monoammonium phosphate (MAP) fell 24%, ammonium nitrate 42% and sulfur imports also declined about 42%. While potassium chloride and triple superphosphate saw modest gains, the overall slowdown reflects buyer caution amid Middle‑East war uncertainties, unfavorable exchange rates and volatile global prices.

Analysts warn that the window to secure enough nitrogen and phosphate inputs for the 2026/27 season is rapidly closing, especially for phosphates whose purchasing window traditionally runs April‑August. Accelerated buying will be needed to avoid supply gaps.

Separately, the corn “safrinha” harvest across Brazil’s Center‑South region is progressing slower than average, with only 26.1% of the area harvested versus a historical 30.3% benchmark. Production is projected at 112.4 million tonnes, down from 118 million tonnes the previous year, a shortfall that may support corn prices even as large carry‑over stocks temper larger gains.