Brazil food service sector faces growth and tax reform uncertainty

The Brazilian food service sector, comprising over 1.5 million establishments, is projected to reach R$ 540 billion in revenue by 2026, according to Abrasel. This represents a 9% increase from the R$ 495 billion projected for 2025. Recent data shows an 11-month trend of year-on-year sales growth, with the Northeast region leading at 10.3% in August.

Despite revenue growth, profitability remains a challenge. Abrasel reports that only 42% of establishments operated with a profit in July, while 20% reported losses. High operating costs continue to pressure cash flows.

Simultaneously, the sector faces significant uncertainty regarding upcoming tax reforms. An Abrasel survey revealed that 60.9% of bar and restaurant owners do not feel prepared for the changes. Specifically, among companies under the Simples Nacional regime, only 10.6% are actively preparing for the transition to the IBS and CBS taxes expected in 2027. Business owners must decide by September 2026 whether to adopt a hybrid tax model, a strategic choice that will impact pricing, credit, and supplier relations.