Brazil fuel market: Record gasoline and ethanol sales projected alongside rising diesel costs

Consultancy StoneX projects record sales for gasoline and ethanol in Brazil for 2026 and 2027. Total sales for light vehicle fuels are expected to reach 63.16 million cubic meters in 2026, a 2.67% increase from 2025, rising further to 64.44 million cubic meters in 2027. This growth is attributed to rising household consumption and an expanding fleet of flex-fuel vehicles. Ethanol is expected to see significant growth, with a projected market share increase from 24.90% in 2026 to 26.19% in 2027, driven by record harvests and favorable price parity.

Separately, data from TruckPag shows that the average price of S10 diesel rose by 11.6% between January and August 2026. Bahia recorded the highest increase at 19.26%, followed by Piauí, Maranhão, and Ceará. While diesel prices stabilized toward the end of August at an average of R$ 6.45 per liter—down from a peak of R$ 7.13 in April—prices remain structurally higher than at the beginning of the year, maintaining cost pressures for transport companies.