Brazil Ministry Projects Modest Impact of New US Tariffs on Economy

Brazil's Ministry of Finance estimates that the recently announced United States tariffs will have a limited effect on the Brazilian economy. The ministry notes that the U.S. market accounts for roughly 11% of Brazil's exports in 2025, representing less than 2% of the country's GDP. Export performance has remained resilient after the August 2025 tariff hike, with a gradual recovery beginning in November. Pending U.S. measures slated for June 2026 include numerous product exemptions, which the ministry says will keep the overall impact modest.

Previous credit lines and support programs have helped mitigate sector‑specific losses, and the government is now reviewing additional measures to aid affected industries and respond to possible U.S. retaliation. Earlier in June, the U.S. Trade Representative suggested a 25% tariff on several Brazilian products, but many exemptions have already been granted, with more expected. The ministry also raised its inflation forecast to 5.1% amid broader global tensions.