Brazil projects 8% rise in 2026 vehicle sales as June market spikes 30% YoY

The Brazilian automotive distribution association Fenabrave raised its 2026 new‑vehicle sales forecast to an 8% increase, targeting 2.9 million units. The upward revision follows strong light‑vehicle sales in the first half of the year, boosted by retail activity and federal programs such as Move Brasil and Carro Sustentável. Fenabrave expects a 9% rise in light‑vehicle registrations versus 2025, but forecasts declines in truck (‑8%) and bus (‑9%) sales for the full year.

For June 2026, official data showed 260,467 new vehicles were registered, about 30% higher than the same month in 2025. The first‑half total reached 1.359 million units, 20.1% above the previous year. Fiat remained the market leader with 49,082 units, while Chinese manufacturer BYD secured a second consecutive appearance in the top‑four with 21,254 units. Other notable performers included Volkswagen, Chevrolet, and domestic brands across the segment.

The data highlight a resilient domestic market despite credit‑cost constraints, with sales growth driven partly by government incentive programs.