Brazil pushes renewable export and grid resilience as El Niño threatens power supply

Brazil’s energy sector sees two converging challenges and opportunities. CEO Gustavo Ayala of Grupo Bolt argues that expanding cross‑border electricity links could turn surplus solar power into a new source of foreign exchange. Brazil already shares grids with Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina and Venezuela, but a missing transmission line to Bolivia prevents the Mato Grosso surplus from being exported. Ayala says that when electricity prices are higher abroad, Brazil could sell clean power, generating revenue and aiding regional decarbonisation.

At the same time, the approaching El Niño is expected to dry up reservoirs in the north‑east and reduce hydro‑electric output, forcing the system operator ONS to rely more on thermal plants. Officials note that the country’s growing wind and solar capacity – from 3.1 GW to 19.5 GW of solar and 16 GW to 35.6 GW of wind between 2021 and 2026 – can offset some of the shortfall. Industry leaders stress that renewables will play a strategic role in energy security, while thermal generation remains a costly backup to avoid rationing.