Brazil weather threatens global Arabica coffee quality and prices

Extreme weather conditions are threatening the global supply and quality of Arabica coffee. In Brazil, the world’s largest producer, heavy rainfall—driven by the El Niño phenomenon—has severely impacted harvests. In regions like Cerrado Mineiro, excessive rain has caused up to 20% of coffee cherries to fall prematurely, leading to issues with fermentation, mold, and contamination. This has significantly degraded the quality of premium beans used by major roasters such as Starbucks, Lavazza, and Illycaffe.

As a result of these quality concerns and harvest delays, Arabica coffee futures have surged by approximately 35% since June. While Brazil may see a high overall volume of coffee, the availability of high-grade beans is expected to drop, with some estimates suggesting only 10-15% of output may meet strict grading criteria.

In addition to Brazil, coffee producers in El Salvador are facing similar challenges due to drought and high temperatures, which are expected to reduce production for the 2026-2027 cycle. These combined climate factors are creating a tightening market and upward pressure on retail prices for consumers worldwide.