Brazil weather threatens global Arabica coffee quality and

The coffee market is experiencing heightened volatility due to supply chain disruptions and severe weather in Brazil. In Romania, coffee prices have surged as Arabica reserves approach levels not seen since the early 1990s. This spike is driven by reduced inventories, delivery delays, and logistical bottlenecks. Despite optimistic US Department of Agriculture forecasts of a massive Brazilian harvest, local analysts note that unusually low rainfall in Minas Gerais has limited immediate supply.

Brazilian coffee exports fell 5.9% through July, totaling 20.8 million 60-kg bags. The Coffee Exporters Council of Brazil (Cecafé) attributed this decline to harvest delays caused by rainfall and port infrastructure issues, which have increased storage costs and led to a 13.1% drop in coffee revenues.

Since June, Arabica futures contracts have risen by approximately 35% as heavy rainfall in regions like Cerrado Mineiro impacts crop quality. Intense rains have caused up to 20% of fruit to fall from trees, significantly higher than the typical 5% to 7% loss. This excess moisture increases risks of mold and fermentation, potentially making beans unsuitable for premium blends used by major brands such as Starbucks, Lavazza, and Illy.

Recent reports indicate that extreme weather driven by the El Niño phenomenon is further threatening global supply. While Brazil may maintain high overall volumes, the availability of high-grade beans is expected to drop, with estimates suggesting only 10-15% of output may meet strict grading criteria. Additionally, producers in El Salvador are facing drought and high temperatures, which are expected to reduce production for the 2026-2027 cycle, further tightening the global market.