U.S. set to impose 25% tariff on Brazilian exports

The United States Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is scheduled to announce its decision on a new tariff regime for Brazilian goods by July 15. The investigation under Section 301 could impose a 25% duty on roughly 4,000 Brazilian products – valued at about US$ 15 billion – with a possible additional 12.5% surcharge for alleged forced‑labor violations, bringing the effective rate to up to 37.5% for some items.

Brazil’s government, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, expects the tariffs to be confirmed and has prepared a “contingency plan” that includes invoking the 2025 Economic Reciprocity Law if the measures are applied. Lula has repeatedly said “there will be no tariff” but also signaled that the administration will continue technical negotiations and will not make concessions on sensitive issues such as the Pix payment system.

Brazilian industry groups – the Confederation of National Industry (CNI), the Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, and others – have submitted a joint letter urging the U.S. to preserve and expand exemptions for key sectors such as coffee, beef, aircraft parts, fertilizers and critical minerals. Private-sector representatives at recent USTR hearings described the tariff as “inevitable” but hope the list of exemptions can be broadened.

Analysts estimate the tariffs could affect up to 21% of Brazil’s exports to the United States, raising costs for manufacturers, farmers and consumers and potentially reducing U.S. imports of coffee, sugar, beef, wood products and industrial inputs. The impact on Brazil’s overall GDP is judged to be limited, but specific regions and supply chains could face significant pressure.