Brazil savings accounts see fourth consecutive month of net withdrawals

Brazil's savings accounts recorded net withdrawals of R$ 9.350 billion in September, marking the fourth consecutive month of outflows. According to Central Bank data, total net withdrawals for the year through September have reached R$ 66.432 billion. This trend of annual resource losses has persisted since 2021.

In September, the Brazilian Savings and Loan System (SBPE) saw a negative balance of R$ 6.186 billion, while rural savings experienced net withdrawals of R$ 3.164 billion. The current profitability of these accounts is determined by the reference rate (TR) plus a fixed remuneration of 0.5% per month, a formula applicable while the Selic rate remains above 8.5% per year. The Selic rate currently stands at 13.75%.

The withdrawals coincide with September inflation rising by 0.82%, exceeding expectations and reversing the previous month's deflation. This brought the 12-month accumulated IPCA inflation to 4.58%, surpassing the target ceiling of 4.5%. Economists note rising pressures in service prices and food costs, leading to market debate over whether the central bank will continue cutting interest rates or pause the cycle to combat inflationary pressures.