Brazil's soybean surge and beef export dip amid tightening fertilizer imports and Argentine corn price gap

Argentina’s corn price gap with Brazil narrowed to around -12% in early July, reflecting strong export demand that keeps Argentine corn prices firm despite a larger national export quota.

Brazil depends on imports for about 85% of its fertilizer needs, exposing the agribusiness sector to global price volatility, logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical risk. Analysts advise advance contracting and diversified sourcing to mitigate cost spikes, especially for sulfur, sulfuric acid and potassium.

The global fertilizer market showed modest stabilization in July as geopolitical tensions eased and Chinese urea exports resumed, yet prices remain uneven across product lines. Producers are urged to plan purchases strategically, focusing on potassium and partial nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur buys.

Brazilian soybean prices broke the R$140 per 60‑kg bag level in early July, driven by a weakening real, climate concerns in the U.S., and Middle‑East tensions. Export volumes reached a record 14.49 million tonnes in June and 69.57 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, a 35 % increase year‑on‑year, with futures pushed out to 2028.

Beef exports in the second week of July fell to an average of 13.08 k tonnes per day, down from 15.05 k tonnes earlier in the month, yet remaining above July 2025 levels. Total shipments amounted to 104.66 k tonnes, 37.8 % of the previous year’s figure, while the average export price held at US$6.38 kg⁻¹.