Brazil sugar market sees price swings as rains halt production and new harvest approaches

In early July, spot prices for white crystalline sugar in São Paulo showed a brief recovery, spurred by heavy rains that temporarily stopped industrial activities and by signals from external commodity markets. Despite this uptick, the average price for the week fell compared with the previous period, leaving analysts uncertain about the near‑term price trend, according to researchers at CEPEA.

CEPEA also reported that ethanol prices fell sharply in the first quarter of the 2026/27 season. The hydrated ethanol price averaged R$ 2.3510 per litre, down 13.1% in real terms year‑on‑year, while anhydrous ethanol fell 12.4% to R$ 2.6868 per litre, reflecting higher supplies from both sugarcane and corn‑based ethanol.

Looking ahead, the 2026/27 sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s Northeast is expected to be more favorable than the current cycle in the Centre‑South, but producers will face high production costs, aging plantations and growing competition from corn ethanol, projected to reach 11.2 billion litres. As Tarcílio Ricardo Rodrigues warned, “It will be a harvest that will demand a lot from companies, especially in risk management.”