Brazil's crops face drought risk as El Niño intensifies

Brazil’s agricultural outlook for the July‑September quarter shows a deepening drought trend across the central regions, with below‑average rainfall projected by INMET. The dry conditions are expected to affect the second corn harvest and pasture renewal, while strong rains continue in parts of the North, South and coastal Northeast.

Climate experts warn that a potentially very strong El Niño later this year could raise temperatures by up to 2 °C and cut national grain productivity by as much as 10 %, especially for soy and corn in the Central‑West and for coffee and oranges in the Southeast. The phenomenon also raises the risk of re‑planting and higher production costs.

The Zoneamento Agrícola de Risco Climático (ZARC) for corn was updated, introducing six soil‑water availability classes and refreshed 30‑year climate series to better identify sowing windows under increased climate variability.

Agronomists advise farmers to strengthen root systems early, adopt pre‑dry‑season management for soy, corn, cotton and sugarcane, and consider bio‑stimulant and foliar nutrition technologies to improve resilience against irregular rains and heat stress.