Brazil's TSE proposes electoral accuracy seal for pollsters amid industry backlash
The president of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Minister Kassio Nunes Marques, presented a draft ordinance to create a “Selo Acurácia Eleitoral” that would award poll‑research institutes whose surveys most closely match the official results of presidential, state and district elections. The proposal was discussed with 16‑19 leading institutes and sets a deadline of 17 July for suggestions on the criteria. The seal would be honorary, applied in years with general elections and would focus on final‑week polls.
The initiative follows the TSE’s recent suspension of an AtlasIntel poll that showed a drop in support for Senate candidate Flávio Bolsonaro after a scandal. The move has drawn strong criticism from the Associação Brasileira de Empresas de Pesquisa (ABEP), which says requiring “accuracy” confuses science with prediction. ABEP warned that “exigir que uma pesquisa acerte o resultado é confundir ciência com bola de cristal” and cautioned that the seal could incentivise methodological shortcuts.
The TSE has opened a public consultation on the seal’s criteria, but no final decision has been made yet.