Brazil's Electoral Court Considers Sanctioning Polling Firm Over Lula-Leading Survey

The president of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, Kassio Nunes Marques, said the court likely has a majority to punish the polling institute AtlasIntel after a June poll showed President Lula with a sizable lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a second‑round simulation. The court suspended the poll’s broadcast at the request of the Liberal Party, alleging bias in the questionnaire and referencing an audio recording involving Flávio Bolsonaro and former banker Daniel Vorcaro. AtlasIntel denies any irregularity.

Commentator José Eduardo Cardozo urged a careful, impartial review, noting that other institutes later produced similar trends. Businessman Leonardo Bortoletto accepted the institute’s reputation but criticized the specific methodology used for the contested survey.

An editorial linked the dispute to a broader pattern, claiming Flávio Bolsonaro is following a “modern coup” playbook that sows doubt about the electoral process before results are known. It compared his tactics to those used in the United States in 2020 and warned of growing U.S. economic and political pressure on Brazil, citing tariffs and statements by U.S. officials such as Senator Marco Rubio.