Brazil's fertilizer prices surge as geopolitics drive urea and phosphates up

International urea prices rose more than 18% in a month, reaching US$421.50 per tonne on July 17, after climbing from about US$350 earlier in the month. The increase reflects renewed demand from Brazilian buyers rebuilding stocks for the upcoming season and heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, including U.S.-Iran tensions, threats to Iranian ports and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Phosphate fertilizer costs are also climbing as China suspends exports, Russia limits nitrogen shipments, and ongoing tension in the Hormuz corridor adds pressure. Analysts warned that Brazilian producers face higher input costs while credit conditions tighten, potentially affecting profitability for the 2026/27 crop cycle.