Lula leads poll over Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 Brazilian election

A BTG/Nexus poll released on 13 July 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential race. In the stimulated first‑round scenario Lula has 40 % of voting intentions, Bolsonaro 34 %, with Ronaldo Caiado at 5 % and other minor candidates each below 5 %. In simulated second‑round match‑ups Lula leads with 47 % against Bolsonaro’s 44 %, a technical tie within the 2‑point margin of error.

Rejection rates remain high: 46 % of respondents say they would not vote for Lula, while 50 % would not vote for Bolsonaro. The poll also records a slight decline in overall voter interest, with 48 % expressing strong interest in the election and 25 % moderate interest, down from the previous survey. The data indicate stability in Lula’s lead and Bolsonaro’s support, while third‑party candidates struggle to break double‑digit levels.

The results are shaping campaign strategies, with Lula’s team expecting centrist parties to stay neutral and Bolsonaro’s camp focusing on consolidating support among men, evangelicals and southern voters.