Lula retains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in July 2026 Brazilian presidential polls

A series of July 2026 polls commissioned by BTG Pactual and Nexus show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading the presidential race with roughly 40 % of intended votes in the first‑round scenario, while senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL‑RJ) trails at about 34 %. In simulated second‑round contests, Lula consistently registers 47 % against Bolsonaro's 44 %, a technical tie within the two‑point margin of error.

Rejection rates remain high for both candidates: Bolsonaro is rejected by 50 % of respondents, the highest among the tested names, while Lula’s rejection has fallen to 46 %. Other contenders – Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos and others – each hover in the low single‑digit range.

Voter engagement appears strong, with 73 % of respondents expressing either strong or moderate interest in the election, and 96 % indicating they intend to vote. The data suggest a stable but polarized contest, with the centrist parties (Centrão) showing signs of neutrality toward Bolsonaro, and internal tensions within the PT over regional alliances.