Brazil's Amazon Soy Moratorium End Could Trigger 1.4 Million Ha Deforestation

A study published in the journal Science projects that ending Brazil's voluntary Amazon soy moratorium could lead to an additional 1.4 million hectares of deforestation over the next decade – about 14 % above historic loss rates. The resulting carbon emissions are estimated at roughly 745 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, comparable to the total annual emissions of Canada.

The moratorium, in place since 2008, barred the purchase of soy grown on recently cleared Amazon land and was credited with a 35 % reduction in deforestation in its first ten years, avoiding about 1.8 million hectares of forest loss. Researchers from WWF‑Brazil, Greenpeace‑Brazil, the Land Conservation Association and U.S. universities in Wisconsin and Illinois authored the analysis.

Legal challenges are pending: the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) withdrew from the pact in January 2026, and four lawsuits are before the Supreme Federal Court, with judgments expected to begin on 12 August. The study warns that up to 28.7 million hectares of public forest could face pressure from agricultural expansion if the agreement lapses. Economic analyses found no significant market distortions or price impacts for producers.

Tiago Reis of WWF‑Brazil emphasized that the moratorium demonstrated “it is possible to increase agricultural production while conserving the forest,” urging continued safeguards and responsible sourcing by importers.