US‑Brazil tariff dispute intensifies as 2026 election looms

The United States, under the Trump administration, is pursuing a Section 301 investigation that could impose a 25 % tariff on a range of Brazilian products. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, reaffirming the tariff proposal and thanking him for supporting the U.S. classification of Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho criminal groups as terrorist organisations. In his letter, Bolsonaro pledged to “put my transition team at the disposal of the United States” if elected president.

Brazil’s government says the measure is politically motivated, aiming to influence the October 2026 presidential election. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, citing a tweet on 24 June, described the tariffs as “an attempt at external interference in Brazil’s justice system.” Vice‑president Geraldo Alckmin blamed “bad Brazilians” – referring to allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro – for working against the country and then trying to “remedy the damage.” Alckmin said, “São maus brasileiros que trabalharam contra o Brasil e agora estão tentando remediar o estrago.”

Negotiations continue through diplomatic and technical channels, with a public hearing scheduled for 6 July and a deadline of 15 July for a final decision. Brazil argues its average tariff on U.S. imports is only 2.7 %, contesting the U.S. claim of “unfair practices” such as alleged restrictions on digital payments (Pix) and ethanol market access. The dispute is also framed within the broader U.S. “national security” policy that seeks greater influence in Latin America ahead of the Brazilian election.