Catalan PSC projected to win 34‑37 seats, Aliança Catalana to become second force

PSC Aliança Catalana Catalan election poll GESOP seats projection

A GESOP poll conducted from 16 to 22 July for El Periódico shows the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) would win 34‑37 seats in a hypothetical Catalan election, down from its current 42 seats, with roughly 25 % of the vote. Aliança Catalana would rise to become the second‑largest party, securing 25‑28 seats and about 16.8 % of the vote. ERC would obtain 24‑27 seats, while Junts would fall to 15‑18 seats. The centre‑right PP would edge slightly ahead of Vox, each projected to obtain between 11‑13 seats. The poll also reports high voter loyalty: AC (94.1 %) and Vox (76.1 %) have the strongest fidelity, with notable vote transfers from Junts, PSC and other parties toward Aliança Catalana.

These results indicate a reshaping of Catalonia’s party system, with Aliança Catalana overtaking traditional forces and the PSC losing seats but remaining the leading party.

Entities: Aliança Catalana · Aliança Catalana (AC) · Cabinet d'Estudis Socials i Opinió Pública (GESOP) · Catalonia · Esquerra Republicana (ERC) · Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) · GESOP (Cabinet d'Estudis Socials i Opinió Pública) · Salvador Illa · Silvia Orriols · Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) · Vox

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 3 SOURCES] Aliança Catalana would win roughly 41 seats, about one third of the parliament. (poll results)
[● 3 SOURCES] Vox would also increase its vote share. (poll observation)
[● 3 SOURCES] Ripoll mayor Silvia Orriols would achieve 16.8 % of the votes and win 25‑28 seats. (poll detail)
[● 3 SOURCES] Aliança Catalana would become the main secessionist party in Catalonia. (poll interpretation)
[● 3 SOURCES] PSC would obtain 25 % of the votes and win 34‑37 seats. (poll results)
[● 10 SOURCES] The GESOP poll was conducted from 16 to 22 July. (citing articles)
[● 3 SOURCES] PSC would lose five to eight seats compared with its current 42. (poll analysis)
[● 3 SOURCES] Aliança Catalana would receive about 26 % of the votes (one quarter). (poll results)
[● 3 SOURCES] Salvador Illa's PSC would lose five to eight seats due to reduced support. (7f35628d-93d1-4ef7-9e91-46d8cd2e1bf6, 949ef08f-da84-4041-8a9f-9a08c6e41a4c, 8d9aba22-dcf0-44aa-9d68-1fd09fb59ebd)
[● 3 SOURCES] The poll projects PSC would receive 25 % of the vote and win 34‑37 seats, down from its current 42 seats. (7f35628d-93d1-4ef7-9e91-46d8cd2e1bf6, 949ef08f-da84-4041-8a9f-9a08c6e41a4c, 8d9aba22-dcf0-44aa-9d68-1fd09fb59ebd)
[● 3 SOURCES] Aliança Catalana could attract voters from Junts, Vox, PSC, ERC, PP, CUP and Comuns. (7f35628d-93d1-4ef7-9e91-46d8cd2e1bf6, 949ef08f-da84-4041-8a9f-9a08c6e41a4c, 8d9aba22-dcf0-44aa-9d68-1fd09fb59ebd)
[● 3 SOURCES] The GESOP poll for EL PERIÓDICO was conducted between 16 and 22 July. (7f35628d-93d1-4ef7-9e91-46d8cd2e1bf6, 949ef08f-da84-4041-8a9f-9a08c6e41a4c, 8d9aba22-dcf0-44aa-9d68-1fd09fb59ebd)