Catalonia poll projects PSC lead, gains for ERC and rising independence support

The Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) released its first 2026 barometer for Catalonia, based on interviews with 2,000 residents conducted between 21 May and 25 June. The survey projects the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) as the largest party in the next regional parliament, winning 36‑38 seats, followed by Esquerra Republicana (ERC) with 24‑26 seats. Aliança Catalana (AC) is expected to overtake Junts, securing 23‑25 seats, while Junts would fall to 16‑18 seats. The People’s Party (PP) and Vox are predicted to tie with 12‑13 seats each, and the Commons and CUP would obtain 4‑5 seats each.

Support for Catalan independence rose to 45 % – up six points from the previous survey – narrowing the gap with the 51 % who oppose independence. When asked about the preferred constitutional model, 36 % now favour an independent state, the highest level since 2019, while support for the current autonomous community model fell to 30 %.

Other attitudes measured include 40 % of Catalans saying they “no longer feel at home” because of immigration, 59 % endorsing the idea that schools should teach children to obey authority, and 30 % favoring less government intervention in the economy. Among political leaders, 18 % of respondents named Salvador Illa as their preferred candidate for president of the Generalitat, ahead of Sílvia Orriols (8 %) and Gabriel Rufián (7 %).

The poll also highlighted that housing remains the top concern for Catalans, cited by 28 % of respondents, while immigration and security each attracted about 10 % concern.