Central Europe faces rising wildfire risks due to climate change

Climate change is driving an increase in high-risk wildfire days across Central Europe. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the frequency of level four danger days has risen significantly over the last two to three decades due to higher temperatures, increased evaporation, and prolonged droughts.

While recent moderate rainfall in regions like Monschau may temporarily reduce surface fuel flammability, experts warn that deep soil moisture remains critically low. Substantial rainfall, equivalent to one or two months of average precipitation, is required to fully rehydrate soil to a depth of one meter to mitigate long-term fire risks.

To improve fire management, researchers at BOKU Wien are analyzing wildfire behavior through advanced modeling. Recent studies by Katrin Kuhnen compared various spread models—including Farsite, Simtable, Prometheus, and PhyFire—to reconstruct past fire events and improve predictive capabilities for protecting forests and residential interface areas.