Brazil grain and commodity markets lift on US‑Iran peace deal and falling oil prices

The early‑July US‑Iran agreement eased Middle‑East tensions, sending global oil prices down 3‑4% and lowering energy costs for Brazil’s agribusiness chain. In Chicago, corn futures rose about 5 points and wheat surged nearly 3 percent as traders priced in stronger demand, especially from China, and favorable U.S. weather. Domestic Brazilian corn prices remained under pressure from the advancing second‑crop (safrinha) harvest, while soybean futures held steady.

Brazil’s export shipments in June jumped 60 % year‑on‑year, moving 265,000 tonnes of corn and generating US$ 61.6 million. At the same time, the government’s pending 2026/27 Plano Safra seeks over R$ 600 billion in credit and cost‑reduction measures for producers. The recent Copom decision to cut the Selic to 14.25 % and its cautious outlook kept the Ibovespa subdued, as lower commodity prices and higher inflation expectations weighed on investor sentiment. Analysts highlight the combined influence of oil price moves, the upcoming safra plan, and Chinese grain demand as key drivers for Brazil’s agricultural sector in the coming months.