Chile and Mexico economic growth forecasts adjusted by central bank and Banamex

The Central Bank of Chile has lowered its economic growth projections in its September Monetary Policy Report (IPoM). The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced from a range of 1.0%–1.75% to 0.25%–0.75%. This downward revision is attributed to weakening domestic demand, a deteriorating labor market, declining confidence indicators, and the impact of rising fuel costs on households and businesses. Additionally, adverse weather conditions and lower mining production have contributed to the slowdown.

In Mexico, Banamex has slightly increased its 2026 GDP growth estimate from 1.3% to 1.4%, citing improvements in the external sector and construction. However, the bank lowered its 2027 growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.7%, anticipating a more gradual recovery in manufacturing and fixed investment. Banamex also expects a less steep inflation trajectory, projecting general inflation at 4.0% and core inflation at 3.9% by the end of 2026, supported by an appreciated exchange rate.