China maintains critical raw material dominance despite Western investment

The TRADIUM Q3/2026 market report indicates that while the US, Europe, and other industrial nations are investing in alternative raw material supply chains, China maintains a quasi-monopoly that remains critical to global supply security. The development of new capacities is a slow process, leaving many markets vulnerable.

Key developments include:

- Rare Earths: Prices for dysprosium and terbium are rising in Western markets due to low Chinese exports and dwindling Western stockpiles. - Gallium and Germanium: Chinese exports remain volatile. Germanium scarcity has driven prices outside of China to record highs. - Indium: High demand from high-tech sectors is meeting structurally limited supply and trade barriers. - Rhenium: Despite cautious demand from the aviation sector, the market remains tight. - Specialized Markets: Antimony, bismuth, and tellurium remain highly susceptible to disruption due to heavy reliance on Chinese refining.

While new projects and supply chains are being established globally, their impact on actual supply remains limited at this stage.