China resumes U.S. soybean purchases, farmers face uncertain outlook

China has begun buying U.S. soybeans again after a trade agreement that lifted the previous purchasing freeze. The deal calls for China to take 12 million metric tons in 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons each year through 2028. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said the agency is confident China will meet those commitments, and data show U.S. soybean exports to China were up 57 % from January through March compared with the prior year.

Despite the rise, China’s share of total U.S. soybean exports remains below 30 %, roughly half of its pre‑trade‑war level. Industry analysts caution that the long‑term outlook for U.S. soybean farmers remains “daunting,” noting that price gains are modest and it is unclear whether China will consistently fulfill its purchase commitments.

Soybean growers such as those in North Dakota report improved morale but warn that high planting costs and lingering uncertainty keep the sector on edge.