China's 15th Five-Year Plan Targets 4.5‑5% Growth and High‑Tech Push

In March 2026 China’s National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference approved the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026‑2030). The plan lowers the official GDP growth target to 4.5‑5%, the lowest since 1991, and maintains a fiscal deficit of about 4% of GDP.

The government emphasizes boosting domestic demand and developing “future industries” such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and other high‑tech sectors. Analysts note that the economy shows signs of “Japanification” – prolonged deflation, overcapacity and falling producer prices, with the PPI declining for 41 consecutive months before a modest rebound tied to higher energy prices from the Iran conflict. Youth unemployment remains high, with official figures vastly understated, and real‑estate, local‑government debt and export reliance exacerbate the slowdown.

The plan reflects a shift toward relying on advanced technology to revive growth, but the low growth target and persistent structural weaknesses suggest a challenging path ahead for China’s economy.