China's Growth Slows as Weak Demand and Aging Population Take Toll

A report by Modern Diplomacy finds that China’s economy is losing momentum, with GDP growth expected to hover around 5 % in 2025 and early 2026—a sharp slowdown from the double‑digit expansion of earlier decades and the 6‑8 % range of the previous ten years.

The slowdown is driven by persistently weak household spending, a shrinking and ageing working‑age population, and slowing export performance. Investment has turned negative in 2025, reflecting lower business confidence, while productivity gains have also decelerated. Export pressures stem from global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, higher U.S. tariffs and a shift of some manufacturing to Southeast Asian locations. The report warns that without a revival in consumer demand and improvements in productivity, China’s growth outlook remains at risk.