China’s shifting demand reshapes soy, corn and beef markets worldwide

Analyst Anderson Nacaxe notes that China remains a pivotal player in global agribusiness, but its influence now varies across commodities. In soy, China continues to buy roughly 60% of the world’s imports and has increasingly sourced the grain from Brazil, reducing reliance on U.S. supplies. Projections for the 2025/26 crop suggest U.S. soy exports to China could hit a 19‑year low, while Chinese importers have already secured over 90% of the season’s needs.

For corn, China’s share of U.S. exports has dropped, with the United States recording record shipments in 2024/25 and turning to other markets such as Mexico, signaling a diversification away from Chinese demand.

In beef, Chinese purchases compete directly with U.S. domestic consumption. With U.S. cattle inventories near historic lows, any rise in Chinese demand could tighten supply and push consumer prices higher. Nacaxe summarizes, “The debate is no longer whether China remains relevant to global agribusiness; the question now is which markets its influence remains strongest and how it manifests.”