Coal market divergence drives shifts in global seaborne trade

Global seaborne coal flows reached 116.5 million tonnes in July 2026, representing a 1% year-on-year increase. However, this headline figure hides a significant divergence between thermal and metallurgical coal markets.

Thermal coal shipments fell 2.3% to 87.3 million tonnes. While Asian imports remained robust due to seasonal electricity demand for cooling—led by China, which held a 32% market share—demand in Europe and the United States declined. This decrease is attributed to a shift toward renewable energy and a preference for utilizing domestic coal stockpiles.

In contrast, metallurgical coal flows surged 11.8% to 27.2 million tonnes. Although India, the largest importer, saw an 18% year-on-year decline, increased shipments to China and Japan offset this loss. Chinese imports rose approximately 30% to compensate for lower domestic production, while Japanese imports increased by about 24% amid expectations of improved steel sector activity.