Global coal capacity, trade, and record consumption trends

Global coal capacity and trade patterns are undergoing significant shifts. Planned global coal mining capacity increased by 11% last year, reaching 2,521 million tonnes per annum, with growth concentrated in India, China, Australia, Russia, and South Africa.

By July 2026, seaborne coal flows reached 116.5 million tonnes, a 1% year-on-year increase. However, a divergence emerged: thermal coal shipments fell 2.3% to 87.3 million tonnes as Europe and the United States shifted toward renewables and domestic stockpiles. Conversely, metallurgical coal flows surged 11.8% to 27.2 million tonnes, driven by increased shipments to China and Japan to offset lower domestic production.

By late 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a 1.4% increase in coal-based electricity generation, signaling a resurgence that challenges the clean energy transition. This trend is attributed to geopolitical tensions and natural disasters disrupting renewable production. Further complicating the outlook, the IEA ‘Coal Mid-Year Update 2026’ report projects global coal consumption will reach a record high of 8.94 billion tonnes this year. This surge is driven by LNG shortages caused by conflict in Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, forcing regions like Europe, Japan, South Korea, India, and China to rely on coal due to high gas prices. Additionally, an intense El Niño cycle is boosting demand, particularly in India and China.

The economic consequences are evident in Colombia, where the industry's decline has significantly impacted state revenues. According to Fenalcarbón, sector contributions could drop to less than 3.5 trillion pesos in 2026, resulting in the loss of over 25,000 direct and 100,000 indirect jobs.