Cocoa prices rise for sixth month amid supply concerns

Cocoa prices have entered a six-month upward trend, with prices rising 25.5% last month to reach $6,771 per ton. This rally is driven by growing concerns over global supply stability, particularly in West Africa.

Analysts point to several contributing factors, including the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is expected to intensify Harmattan winds and cause record temperatures that stress cocoa trees. In major producing nations such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, slow crop development and flowering have raised questions about future yields.

Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have influenced energy costs, adding to market volatility. While previous forecasts suggested a global cocoa surplus for the 2026/27 season, many analysts have now lowered these projections. There are increasing warnings that a supply deficit could emerge, especially if demand continues to strengthen in Asia.